What Makes This American Government Shutdown Distinct (as well as Harder to Resolve)?
Shutdowns have become a recurring feature of US politics – but the current situation appears particularly intractable because of political dynamics and deep-seated animosity among the two parties.
Some government services are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 people likely to be placed on unpaid leave since both political parties remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Votes aimed at ending the impasse have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on an off-ramp this time as both parties – as well as the nation's leader – perceive advantages in maintaining their positions.
These are several key factors in which this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
The Democratic base has been demanding over recent periods for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Well now the party leadership has a chance to show their responsiveness.
In March, Senate leader was fiercely criticised after supporting GOP budget legislation and averting a shutdown in the spring. This time he's holding firm.
This presents an opportunity for the Democratic party to show they can take back certain authority from a presidency that has moved aggressively with determined action.
Refusing to back the Republican spending plan carries electoral dangers that the wider public may become impatient as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
The Democrats are leveraging the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about ending healthcare financial support and Republican-approved government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.
Additionally, they're attempting to curtail executive utilization of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding authorized legislatively, which he has done in international assistance and other programmes.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President and one of his key officials have made little secret their perspective that they perceive an opening to make more of reductions to the federal workforce implemented during in the Republican's second presidency to date.
The President himself said last week that the government closure provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials stated they would face the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson described this as "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, though administration officials have been consulting with federal budget authorities, or OMB, under the leadership of the key official.
The budget director has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, such as NYC and Chicago.
3. There's little trust between both parties
Whereas past government closures have been characterised by extended negotiations between the two parties aimed at restoring government services running again, there appears to be little of the same spirit for compromise presently.
Conversely, there is rancour. The bad blood persisted recently, as both sides blaming each other for causing the impasse.
The legislative leader a Republican, charged opposition members of not being serious about negotiating, and holding out during discussions "to get political cover".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader made similar charges against their counterparts, stating how a Republican promise to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume can not be taken seriously.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions by posting a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, in which the legislator appears wearing a large Mexican-style sombrero and facial hair.
The representative and other Democrats called this racist, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.
Fourth, The American Economy is fragile
Experts project approximately two-fifths of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough as a result of the shutdown.
That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, including halted environmental approvals, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments and other kinds of government activity tied to business cease functioning.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability within economic systems currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points from national economic expansion for each week it lasts.
But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.
That could be one reason why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.
On the other hand, analysts say that if administration officials implement proposed significant workforce reductions, the damage could be extended in duration.
